AMNH Earth Visualizations

Google+ Hangout

On September 9, 2014, AMNH Science Bulletins hosted a Google+ Hangout about the past, present, and future of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. See CO₂’s patterns around the globe, learn how its rise was discovered, and the significance of passing an atmospheric CO₂ concentration of 400 parts per million. Joining Laura Allen, editorial producer of AMNH Science Bulletins, were:

Pieter Tans, Senior Scientist at NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory and lead, Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases Group
Ralph Keeling, program director of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography CO2 Program and son of Charles Keeling
Andy Jacobson, University of Colorado research scientist and NOAA lead for CarbonTracker at ESRL

Watch the recording here.

Check CO2 now!

Atmospheric carbon dioxide is monitored from the top of Hawaii’s Mauna Loa volcano by both NOAA and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. For continuous interactive updates on CO2’s status, visit:
NOAA: Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Scripps: The Keeling Curve

Dataset Information

More than 60 years ago, scientists were uncertain how much carbon dioxide was present in the atmosphere: measurements were taken sporadically, and published values varied widely. In 1957, the U.S. Weather Bureau (now called the National Weather Service) built Mauna Loa Observatory. The facility’s remote location near the summit of Hawaii’s 4,000-meter-high volcano offered access to air undisturbed by industry and other polluting factors. There, a young researcher from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography named Charles (Dave) Keeling, who in years prior had developed accurate means to measure the gas, began the CO₂measuring program that persists to this day. Keeling’s air samples revealed not only carbon dioxide’s natural short-term cycles but also a long-term rise forced by human activity.

Mauna Loa Observatory is now a part of NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL). It continues to monitor greenhouse and ozone-depleting gases to aid research and understanding of global climate and atmospheric change.

This visualization tells this story with several datasets:

Weekly average carbon dioxide concentration for 1958 (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)

The first graph in the visualization shows weekly averages of Charles Keeling’s first CO₂ measurements using Mauna Loa’s gas analyzer instrument. The unit is parts per million, or ppm—the number of CO₂ molecules present in every million molecules of air. Keeling began taking measurements on March 29, 1958. Electrical power failures shut down the equipment for several intervals that year.

In this dataset, Keeling discovered the distinct rise and fall of carbon dioxide levels over a year’s time. The pattern is caused by the uptake and release of CO₂ from seasonal plant growth on the vast landmasses of the Northern Hemisphere. The annual maximum CO₂ concentration in the Northern Hemisphere occurs around May. The spring buildup happens because decaying plants have been releasing carbon throughout the winter. The annual minimum concentration occurs around October, after new growth has withdrawn CO₂ from the air during photosynthesis.

Keeling's Curve Data Image: Annual Cycle

CarbonTracker (NOAA ESRL)

CarbonTracker, a global model of how CO₂ moves across the atmosphere, was developed by NOAA ESRL. It simulates CO₂ concentrations around the world based on observed quantities collected at Mauna Loa and other sampling sites (orange dots). The model also takes into account how molecules move through the atmosphere. On our map of CarbonTracker data, CO₂’s spring buildup in the Northern Hemisphere is distinctly visible as a purple band on the top half of the globe in May. The Southern Hemisphere shows low levels (yellow) at that time.

Monthly average carbon dioxide concentration, 1958 – 2014 (Scripps/NOAA ESRL)

During Keeling’s first measurements in 1958, the maximum concentration of CO₂ reached 318 ppm in late May. In time, he realized that CO₂’s annual cycles were superimposed on a long-term trend: average CO₂ levels were rising 2.2 percent a year. He attributed this rise to the addition of CO₂ from fossil fuel combustion and recognized its implications for enhancing the greenhouse effect. In 2013, CO₂ levels at Mauna Loa Observatory reached 400 ppm for several days, a long-expected symbolic milestone of the human impact on Earth’s atmosphere. In 2014, levels exceeded 400 ppm daily for three months straight.

The monthly data prior to 1974 are from the Scripps measuring program at Mauna Loa initiated by Keeling; thereafter from NOAA ESRL’s program at the observatory.

Carbon dioxide projections through 2100 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)

In 2005, the IPCC released four projections of future CO₂ emissions from different climate modeling teams. These outlooks are called representative concentration pathways (RCPs) because each one represents a different concentration of CO₂ that may manifest by 2100, and a different “path” as CO₂ changes over time. This visualization shows two RCPs. One rises steadily to 936 ppm by 2100 (RCP 8.5), representing few cooperative measures to reduce global emissions. The second shows an aggressive reduction in emissions, resulting in a decrease to 421 ppm by 2100 (RCP 2.6). Currently, global emissions are trending even higher than the RCP 8.5 scenario projects.

Credits

Writer/Producer
AMNH/L. Allen

Data visualization and animation
AMNH/A. Wetteborn
AMNH/S. Krasinski

Data and images

Earth/Mauna Loa: NASA/USGS
Observatory image/CarbonTracker data: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
1958 CO2 data: Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Keeling Curve: Scripps/NOAA

Music
“Hibernation A” by Tim Whitelaw
“Seeing is Believing” and “Logical Logistics” by Robert John Foster

Special thanks
Andy Jacobson, University of Colorado and NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

This visualization was prepared by the American Museum of Natural History under award NA10SEC0080014 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Visualizations Videos

Keeling's Curve: The Story of CO2