Earth Day 2023: Tipping Points

Earth Day 2023: Tipping points - Descriptive Transcript

[American Museum of Natural History logo appears.]

[Pollution spews from an industrial plant.]

[TENSE MUSIC]

[TEXT: Since the Industrial Revolution, humans have pumped enough greenhouse gasses into the air to raise Earth’s temperature by 1.1°C.]

[A line graph indicates that global CO₂ emissions have risen to over 35 billion tons per year since industrialization.]

[TEXT: Average global surface temperatures: +1.1°C (1.9°F) since 1880. A majority of warming has occurred since 1975.]

[Screen goes dark. Particles swirl, suggesting greenhouse gasses.]

[TEXT: With the current buildup of greenhouse gasses, additional warming is inevitable. +1.5°C likely by the early 2030s.]

[A globe balances on the fulcrum of a seesaw.]

[TEXT: Scientists warn that warming over 1.5°C puts us at risk of dangerous tipping points. A tipping point is where a small change has big, lasting consequences.]

[The period at the end of the sentence falls onto one end of the seesaw, causing the seesaw to tip and sending the globe rolling down.]

[TEXT: If warming exceeds 1.5°C, the Greenland ice sheet may destabilize and collapse, raising sea levels by up to 7 meters over time.]

[SOUNDS OF CRACKING ICE AND FLOWING WATER]

[A line is drawn across the screen, representing the crust of an ice sheet. It breaks and collapses, and water rises.]

[TEXT: Greenland ice sheet collapse, minimum estimates: tipping point 0.8°C, 1,000-year timeframe]

[The water is replaced by a light background, representing permafrost.]

[TEXT: If warming exceeds 1.5°C, permafrost may thaw, releasing enough carbon and methane to accelerate global warming.]

[The level of permafrost falls and animated bubbles rise, suggesting the release of greenhouse gasses.]

[TEXT: Abrupt thaw of northern permafrost, minimum estimates: tipping point 1.0°C, 100-year timeframe]

[The scene moves to a dark, lush rainforest.]

[BIRDS CHIRPING AND OTHER FOREST SOUNDS]

[TEXT: If warming exceeds 1.5°C, large swaths of the Amazon rainforest may die back, altering biodiversity and weather patterns on Earth.]

[Vegetation falls away. The screen goes dark. Swirling lines suggest shifting air currents.]

[TEXT: Amazon collapse into savanna, minimum estimates: tipping point 2.0°C, 50-year timeframe]

[The line graph reappears, showing global carbon dioxide emissions at over 35 billion tons per year.]

[TEXT: To avoid dangerous tipping points, we must cut emissions dramatically.]

[The graph is extended into the future. The trendline makes a sharp decline. An arrow points to the trendline.]

[TEXT: Goals]

[TEXT: Pathway to limit warming to 1.5°C: GHGs must peak before 2025 and fall 43% by 2030.]

[The color scheme changes to a lighter palette.]

[MUSIC SHIFTS TO OPTIMISTIC TUNE]

[TEXT: Fortunately, we may be reaching some positive tipping points.]

[Wind turbines spin.]

[TEXT: The economics of clean energy is a tipping point. Electricity from renewables is now cheaper than fossil fuels.]

[A coin rolls down the slope of a line graph. The graph depicts the change in the price of electricity between 2009 and 2020. Wind and solar energy have become cheaper than coal and gas.]

[TEXT: The majority of newly installed power plants run on clean energy.]

[A power plant is encircled by a leafy vine.]

[TEXT: Over the next 5 years, 90% of new power plants are forecast to run on clean energy.]

[SOUND OF LIGHTNING BOLT]

[A bolt of electricity clears the screen. A bar chart appears, showing exponential growth in global electric car sales from 2012 to 2022.]

[TEXT: Electric vehicle sales are taking off. By 2030, EVs are forecast to be a majority of light-vehicle sales.]

[An electric car drives up the steep curve of the graph and shoots off the screen.]

[TEXT: 1.5°C pathway: EVs must be increasingly powered by renewable sources.]

[TEXT: Energy technology that once seemed futuristic—super batteries, biofuels from waste, hydrogen fuel cells, heat pumps, carbon capture and storage, plant-based plastics—are here.]

[A succession of new technologies is depicted: a battery with a superhero logo, a garbage can growing a gas pump, a fuel cell producing water vapor, a house extracting heat from the ground, a plastic bottle made of bamboo, and a power plant pumping carbon into the ground.]

[TEXT: Scaling up these technologies will allow us to decarbonize more industries.]

[TEXT: 1.5°C pathway: Innovation and efficiency needed in hard-to-decarbonize industries.]

[The screen goes blank. Text appears.]

[TEXT: Nature is now recognized as a critical part of the solution.]

[TEXT: 1.5°C pathway: Land-use changes could provide one-third of emissions reductions needed by 2030.]

[The silhouette of a rainforest appears.]

[TEXT: By not burning forests and not draining wetlands, we keep carbon locked away in trees and soil.]

[Bubbles representing greenhouse gasses are contained within the rainforest image.]

[TEXT: Regrowing degraded ecosystems removes CO₂ from the air.]

[A forest sprouts up. The greenhouse gas bubbles are drawn from the air into the trees and soil.]

[TEXT: Integrating crops and livestock reduces agricultural emissions.]

[Sheep graze on farmland.]

[SHEEP BLEATING]

[TEXT: 1.5°C pathway: Proposed land-use changes also support biodiversity, food security, and the rights of local communities.]

[The screen goes blank. Text appears.]

[TEXT: Attitudes and expectations are also reaching a tipping point. A majority of the public believes climate change is an important problem, and their government should take steps to fight it.]

[Flags for 20 countries are overlaid with percentages, representing the number of survey respondents in each country who agreed. The percentages are in the 70s, 80s and 90s.]

[TEXT: 2022 OECD survey: 40,000 respondents across 20 countries that produce 72% of global GHGs]

[The screen goes blank. Text appears.]

[TEXT: These demands are pushing governments and companies to act.]

[A globe turns as four regions are highlighted.]

[TEXT: New clean energy policies in the US, EU, China and India are speeding the transition to renewables.]

[A handshake reflects an international agreement.]

[TEXT: 30 by 30. UN countries agreed to halt nature loss and protect 30% of Earth’s land and oceans by 2030.]

[On a seesaw, a polluting power plant is weighing down one side.]

[TEXT: Race to Zero. Countries, cities and companies have pledged to reach net zero by 2050. Net zero means removing as much greenhouse gas as we emit. ]

[A rainforest pops up on the other side of the seesaw and draws in greenhouse gas emissions from the air. The seesaw is rebalanced.]

[TEXT: 1.5°C pathway: global GHG emissions net negative by 2050—we must be removing more than we emit.]

[A globe turns. Bars protruding from the globe represent levels of greenhouse gas emissions from individual factories and power plants.]

[TEXT: Accountability is another tipping point. We now have the tools to track emissions and hold polluters accountable.]

[A satellite scans Earth from above. Natural gas is being emitted from factories and power plants.]

[TEXT: Climate TRACE aggregates satellite data to map near-real-time emissions from 8,000 of the world’s most polluting facilities.]

[A pie chart indicates one-third.]

[TEXT: Satellite monitors can detect leaks of methane, or “natural gas.” Methane causes one-third of warming.]

[TEXT: 1.5°C pathway: Fixing gas leaks is critical. Methane has 85x more warming power than CO₂ in the short term (20 years).]

[A globe is balanced on the fulcrum of a seesaw. One side is weighed down by greenhouse gas emissions. The seesaw is beginning to tilt, but is rebalanced with additions to the other side: an electric vehicle, clean power, rainforest, wind turbine and shaking hands.]

[TEXT: Keeping to 1.5°C warming this century, depends on our actions now. Let’s tip the scales in our favor.]

[TEXT: 1.5°C pathway: GHG emissions must be declining by 2025, 43% lower by 2030, and net negative by 2050. ]

[Credits roll.]