Earth Day 1970 - 2020: 50th Anniversary || Time Will Tell
Earth Day 1970 - 2020: 50th Anniversary || Time Will Tell
[American Museum of Natural History logo animates out over an illustration of the rotating Earth.]
[TEXT: The first Earth Day was in 1970, 50 years ago.]
[TEXT: What’s changed since? We have.]
[TEXT: Earth Day 1970 - 2020: 50th Anniversary || Time Will Tell]
[Earth dissolves into a multitude of abstract people figures inside a circle of the same diameter as the globe.]
[TEXT: Our population has more than doubled.]
[Number of figures inside the circle doubles.]
[TEXT: Global population | 1970: 3.7 billion | 2020: 7.8 billion. Source: UN]
[Circle with figures is replaced by a circle containing an abstract cityscape]
[TEXT: We take up more space: built-up area +22 million hectares]
[INDISTINCT URBAN SOUNDS OF PEOPLE AND TRAFFIC]
[TEXT: Total land use (grazing, cropland and built-up areas) | 1970: 4.5 bn ha (45 m km2)| 2015: 4.9 bn ha (49 m km2). Source: Our World in Data & HYDE database]
[Circle containing the cityscape expands. Abstract cow figures form an outer ring.]
[TEXT: We take up more space: grazing +230 million hectares]
[FARMYARD SOUNDS OF CHICKENS, PIGS AND COWS]
[Circle expands again. Abstract corn stalks form an outer ring]
[TEXT: We take up more space: cropland +160 million hectares.]
[SOUNDS OF TRACTOR AT WORK]
[TEXT: We take up more space, putting us in closer contact with wild animals]
[Silhouettes of a bat, pangolin, deer, rodent and other wild animals are arranged on the outside of the circle.]
[SOUNDS OF ANIMALS INCLUDING BIRDS AND WOLVES]
[Circle spins and transforms into a coronavirus silhouette, a ball with knob-like protrusions. Three-quarter of the silhouette is highlighted.]
[TEXT: Three-quarters of new infectious diseases originate in animals. So outbreaks are becoming more common.]
[TEXT: Three-quarters of new and emerging infectious diseases for people—including COVID-19—originate in animals. Source: CDC]
[The coronavirus silhouette shrinks down and multiples into dots. The dots are arranged to form bars in a bar graph, showing increasing rates of disease over three decades.]
[TEXT: Human infectious disease outbreaks | 1980-1990: 991 | 1990-2000: 1,924 | 2000-2010: 3,420. Source: Interface]
[Graph disappears and globe with human figures reappears in the center. Two abstract figures are extracted from the globe, and grow in size to dominate the screen. One figure is labelled “then,” and one is labelled “now.”]
[TEXT: On average, each person produces 21% more CO2.]
[Bars containing an abstract bubbling gas, representing CO2, appear next to each of the two human figures. The bar next to the “now” figure is taller.]
[TEXT: Per capita CO2 emissions | 1970: 4.0 tons | 2018: 4.9 tons. Sources: Global Carbon Project & UN]
[The two figures are holding nozzles from a gas pump.]
[TEXT: Per capita fossil fuel use: +47%. Source: Our World in Data & BP]
[SOUNDS OF A BELL DINGING AT A GAS STATION]
[Gas nozzles are replaced by hamburgers. The hamburger held by the “now” figure is larger.]
[TEXT: Per capita meat consumption: +65%. Source: Our World in Data & FAO]
[SOUNDS OF COW MOOING]
[Hamburgers are replaced by plastic bags. The “now” figure is holding more bags.]
[TEXT: Per capita plastic production: +447%. Source: Our World in Data & Geyer et al.]
[SOUNDS OF CRINKLING PLASTIC]
[Plastic bags are replaced by suitcases]
[TEXT: Per capita airplane trips: +561%. Source: World Bank]
[SOUNDS OF AN AIRPLANE TAKING OFF]
[Human figures disappear. Two bars containing bubbling CO2 multiple into a long series of bars, showing annual growth in CO2 emissions over decades]
[TEXT: Together, we’ve emitted 1.2 trillion tons of CO2 since 1970.]
[TEXT: Global CO2 emissions (tons) | 1970: 14.9 billion | 2018: 36.6 billion. Source: Global Carbon Project]
[CO2 bubbles fill the screen. Screen fades to black, then back to white. Turning globe reappears in center.]
[TEXT: What else has changed since 1970? Our planet has.]
[Small dots encircle the globe, representing CO2 molecules. They multiply.]
[TEXT: There’s more CO2 in our atmosphere.]
[SOUNDS OF TRUCK ACCELERATING]
[CO2 molecules scroll off the globe, which disappears. Molecules form a line graph showing 26% global rise in CO2 over decades.]
[TEXT: Atmospheric CO2 (parts per million) | 1970: 326 ppm | 2019: 411 ppm. Source: NOAA]
[Line from line graph levels out and becomes the ocean surface. Bubbles beneath the surface represent CO2.]
[TEXT: There’s more CO2 in our atmosphere and in our oceans,]
[SOUNDS OF WATER MOVING]
[TEXT: causing ocean acidity to rise: +4% acidity per decade]
[Water level rises and fills the screen.]
[TEXT: Warmer waters and more acidity can impair animal shell formation. Source: BioScience & IPCC]
[Screen is black. White line graph draws on, over an abstract thermometer that is filling, representing temperature rise over decades.]
[TEXT: and Earth’s surface to warm: +1°C]
[TEXT: Global land-ocean surface temperature (compared to 20th Century average) | 1970: -0.01°C | 2019: +0.98°C. Source: NASA/GISS]
[Black background turns white. Line from the graph tilts in the opposite direction, forming a downward slope, representing annual ice loss from Greenland over decades.]
[SOUNDS OF BREAKING ICE AND A STREAM OF WATER]
[TEXT: Glaciers are melting. Greenland ice is melting 6x faster.]
[Water runs down slope into the ocean.]
[TEXT: Greenland ice loss (annual average) |1980-1990: 51 bn tons | 2010-2018: 286 bn tons. Source: PNAS]
[Ocean water level shown with abstract city skyline in background.]
[TEXT: Sea levels are rising: +3.3 cm per decade.]
[SOUNDS OF WATER SLOSHING AROUND]
[TEXT: Global average sea level compared to 1993 | 1970: -6.2 cm | 2019: +9.6 cm. Source: NASA & NOAA]
[Ocean and cityscape scroll off screen. Large, swirling symbol for hurricane rotates on screen.]
[TEXT: Extreme weather events are more common.]
[SOUNDS OF HOWLING WIND]
[A bar graph shows annual storm events over decades.]
[SOUNDS OF RAIN AND WATER]
[An abstract graphic of a house mostly submerged in water replaces hurricane symbol, representing floods. The bars in the bar graph are extended upwards, to include annual flooding events, which are also increasing.]
[SOUNDS OF BURNING, CRACKLING WOOD]
[An abstract forest burns, replacing the flooded house. The bars in the graph extend upwards again, to include annual drought and forest fire events.]
[TEXT: Extreme weather events (storms, floods, droughts & forest fires), 1980-2018: +44% per decade. Source: BioScience & Munich Re]
[Screen fades to black and then back to white.]
[TEXT: What else has changed since 1970? We have.]
[Music lightens and colors are introduced to the black-and-white palette. Many indistinct graphs appear, suggesting data and scientific research.]
[TEXT: We now understand the impacts of our habits on the Earth.]
[SOUNDS OF DATA TRANSMISSION]
[Graphs disappear and turning globe reappears center screen. Globe is enclosed in an abstract pattern suggesting pollution.]
[TEXT: We have the evidence. We know what we need to do: Cut carbon emissions and other greenhouse gases.]
[Pollution disappears from globe.]
[TEXT: Restore and protect natural habitats on land and at sea.]
[Black-and-white rotating globe turns green and blue, signifying clean land and water.]
[TEXT: Together we can do it.]
[SOUNDS OF BIRDS AND NATURE.]
[Abstract wind turbines pop out of the globe and spin.]
[TEXT: We are already using more renewable energy: wind power 32x more capacity]
[TEXT: Wind energy (total installed capacity, megawatts) | 2000: 17,278 MW | 2018: 563,726 MW. Source: IRENA]
[Wind turbines are replaced by solar panels.]
[TEXT: solar power 400x more capacity]
[TEXT: Solar energy (total installed capacity, megawatts) | 2000: 1,227 MW | 2018: 485,826 MW. Source: IRENA]
[TEXT: We are already: restoring and expanding forests]
[Globe transforms into a circular patch of brown soil, with a dozen or so trees growing.]
[TEXT: +3.2 million km² green leaf coverage since 2000]
[TEXT: Global green leaf coverage, 2000-2017: +2 million sq miles (3.2m km2), a 5% increase. Source: NASA]
[Circle of trees is replaced by circle looking into a colorful coral reef, as if through a porthole.]
[SOUNDS OF BUBBLES UNDERWATER]
[TEXT: We are already: protecting more marine areas]
[TEXT: +27 million km²]
[TEXT: Designated marine protected areas |1970: 0.1% of ocean | 2020: 7.4% of ocean. Source: UN & IUCN]
[Circle becomes a dartboard, with each ring labelled. The outermost ring is labeled The Globe. The innermost circle is labeled You.]
[TEXT: The globe, nations, states, cities, companies, you!]
[TEXT: We are already: setting carbon-reduction targets to stay below 2°C warming]
[TEXT: Paris Agreement (2015): Limit warming this century to 2°C above pre-industrial levels | 195 signatories. Source: UN]
[Dartboard falls away and graph appears, showing declining birth rates over decades.]
[SOUNDS OF BABY CRYING GENTLY.]
[TEXT: Birth rates are declining. 1970: 4.5 births per woman. 2020: 2.5 births per woman.]
[TEXT: Global fertility rates (live births per woman, average) | 1970: 4.5 | 2020: 2.5. Source: UN]
[Graph disappears and plate of salad and grainy bread takes center screen.]
[TEXT: Our diets are changing.]
[TEXT: Global beef consumption (per capita, annual) | 1970: 10.8 kg | 2020: 9.3 kg. Source: UN FAO]
[Plate disappears and is replaced by chalkboard. Two pie charts are drawn on, showing change in literacy rates.]
[TEXT: We are becoming better educated]
[SOUND OF CHALK DRAWING ON CHALKBOARD]
[TEXT: Global literacy rates: then 65%, now 86%.]
[TEXT: Global adult literacy rates| 1976: 65% | 2020: 86%. Source: World Bank]
[Chalkboard disappears and is replaced by statement.]
[TEXT: We are demanding action.]
[Screen fills with photos of protestors at climate marches around the world, carrying signs. Photos disappear.]
[TEXT: The past is clear.]
[Graph is drawn showing CO2 emissions in gigatons over decades. Starting point is 1980 and ending point is labelled Now.]
[TEXT: The future is ours to create.]
[Graph extends into the future, showing four possible scenarios, each resulting in a different rise in global temperature, depending on the amount of CO2 emitted.]
[TEXT: 2070 scenarios: +4°C, +3°C, +2°C, +1°C]
[SOUND OF CHEERING WHEN +1°C SCENARIO APPEARS.]
[TEXT: Scenarios: To stay under 2°C warming, models show we must reduce CO2 emissions dramatically and quickly. Source: Global Carbon Project]
[TEXT: What will Earth Day look like in 50 years? It depends on how much we cut CO2 emissions today.]
[Graph disappears. Rotating globe covered with waving country flags takes center screen.
[TEXT: Together, we decide.]
[Sphere with flags dissolves into rotating Earth.]
[Credits roll.]
This year marks the 50th anniversary of Earth Day. In the ensuing years, our population has doubled. We eat more meat, fly more often, use more energy, and produce more stuff. Fortunately, our understanding has also changed. Decades of careful observation have given us a detailed picture of how Earth is responding to our habits. The past is clear. What will the future look like? It depends on the choices we make today.